Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 1.362709 1.416163 1.471290 1.532547 1.598901 1.668817 1.748337
2026-01-04 1.309495 1.382472 1.460099 1.549304 1.649607 1.759663 1.890620
2026-01-11 1.256131 1.341257 1.433872 1.543014 1.669325 1.812471 1.989307
2026-01-18 1.216621 1.311402 1.416499 1.543062 1.693307 1.868637 2.092975
2026-01-25 1.167288 1.267068 1.379289 1.516678 1.683022 1.881712 2.143343
2026-02-01 1.133976 1.239084 1.358908 1.507957 1.691954 1.916923 2.222052
2026-02-08 1.103477 1.212703 1.338699 1.497650 1.697324 1.946750 2.294600
2026-02-15 1.075481 1.187918 1.318978 1.486418 1.700112 1.972395 2.362263
2026-02-22 1.057421 1.174075 1.311532 1.489486 1.720466 2.021168 2.464533
2026-03-01 1.026562 1.143631 1.282545 1.463941 1.702023 2.016463 2.489471
2026-03-08 1.001987 1.120020 1.261068 1.446876 1.693556 2.024268 2.532441
2026-03-15 0.981435 1.100671 1.244149 1.434811 1.690847 2.039357 2.586762
2026-03-22 0.972282 1.095501 1.245238 1.446714 1.721800 2.104718 2.726427
2026-03-29 0.966714 1.094481 1.251340 1.465177 1.762349 2.186194 2.900365
2026-04-05 0.952030 1.081503 1.241606 1.461910 1.772000 2.222245 3.002467
2026-04-12 0.940326 1.071913 1.235841 1.463601 1.788506 2.269338 3.128491
2026-04-19 0.919048 1.049582 1.212841 1.440849 1.768467 2.258390 3.148882
2026-04-26 0.905212 1.036447 1.201495 1.433697 1.770796 2.282520 3.236254
2026-05-03 0.891367 1.022961 1.189290 1.424853 1.770070 2.301448 3.315568
2026-05-10 0.877755 1.009463 1.176698 1.414992 1.767265 2.316594 3.388931
2026-05-17 0.869837 1.003138 1.173418 1.418024 1.783879 2.364542 3.534217
2026-05-24 0.852207 0.983788 1.152238 1.394927 1.759464 2.341812 3.528799
2026-05-31 0.838115 0.968837 1.136684 1.379476 1.746309 2.337617 3.562910